1,000-Trial Monte Carlo · RMDs · MAGI · SS 85% Taxation · IRMAA · Extended Care Waterfall · 2026 OBBBA
Success Rate
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1,000 Monte Carlo trials
Median Final Wealth
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at end of plan
SS at Claim Age (Annual)
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future dollars at claim age
Care Cost at Start
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extended care · med inflation
⚠ Stress Scenario Active: 1970s-Style Inflation
First 2 retirement years modeled at 7% general inflation, permanently resetting the spending floor upward. Bear-market return is capped during care years — cash buffer is drawn first to prevent forced portfolio selling at a loss.
✅ Guaranteed Income Covers All Spending
📊 Portfolio Draw Required
🏥 Medicare IRMAA Surcharge Triggered
Portfolio Projection Paths · Median of 1,000 Trials
Success Rate by Age · % of 1,000 Trials Still Solvent
Year-by-Year Breakdown · Every 5 Years
● Orange rows = Extended Care phase begins
Technical Analysis & Assumptions
2026 OBBBA Tax Model
Progressive 2026 OBBBA federal brackets, SS 85% taxable inclusion, dynamic marginal rate drag on taxable savings interest. Care costs treated as straight post-tax hits — medical deductions NOT modeled (conservative: real-world deductions would reduce taxes significantly at care ages, making the plan more resilient than shown).
Standard Deduction
$15,000 (inflation-adjusted)
SS Taxable Inclusion
85% of SS income
RMD Taxation
Ordinary income rate
Taxable Interest Drag
Dynamic marginal rate
Care Cost Treatment
Straight post-tax hit
Medical Deduction
NOT modeled — safety margin
📈 Marginal Pension Gain Analyzer
Month-by-month FAS recalculation reveals where each additional month of work produces the most pension income — including step-function jumps at FAS window boundaries. Detects threshold crossing dates and outputs an optimal exit band, not a single date.
Plan Parameters
Auto-filled from simulation if run
Your earned benefit today. Auto-filled from simulation.
HMEPS ~2.5%. Check your plan documents.
Raises shift FAS window — each raise rolls new higher months in.
How far forward to project. 48 = 4 years.
Pension Milestone Thresholds ($)
Enter the monthly pension amounts you want to track crossing — e.g. $7,000, $8,000, $9,000. The analyzer will detect exactly when you cross each and output the crossing window.
Monthly Pension vs. Additional Months Worked
Marginal $ Gain Per Month Worked — Where Is Each Month Most Valuable?
Threshold Crossing Dates
Optimal Retirement Exit Band
🎯 Exit Band Analysis
⚠ Precision Warning: These are probability bands, not exact retirement dates. Payroll timing, FAS window boundary effects, longevity inclusion timing, and rounding rules can shift exact crossing dates by 2–4 weeks. Retire within the band — not on a single target date. Verify final numbers with your pension administrator before filing.
Month-by-Month FAS Recalculation — Every 3 Months
● Orange rows = threshold crossing month | ✓ Green rows = peak marginal gain months
🏦 DROP Decision Tool
Model two parallel tracks: Track A — keep working, let the pension grow. Track B — enter DROP now, collect a lump sum, then retire on a frozen pension. Your 401/457 contributions run independently on both tracks.
Current Age ?Your age today — auto-filled from simulation if run.
Years of Service Now
Must already be eligible to retire to enter DROP
Life Expectancy
Current Pension — Frozen at DROP Entry ($/mo) ?The monthly pension amount that would be locked in if you entered DROP today. This is what flows into your DROP account each month.
Pension Accrual Rate (%/yr of service) ?The % of final salary earned per year of service. Houston HMEPS is typically ~2.5%. Check your plan documents.
Final Average Salary ($/yr)
Expected Annual Salary Raises (%)
Raises lift the pension formula base — important for Track A
DROP Window (Years) ?How long you participate in DROP before you must retire. Typical range is 3–8 years. Check your specific plan rules.
DROP Crediting Rate (%/yr) ?The guaranteed interest rate credited to your DROP account balance each year. Fixed by the plan — not market-based.
Current 401/457 Balance ($)
Grows identically on both tracks — does not affect the DROP decision
Annual 401/457 Contribution ($/yr)
401/457 Expected Return (%/yr)
Investment Return After Retirement (%/yr) ?The rate you'd earn investing the DROP lump sum after retiring. Used to project how the lump sum grows against the higher Track A pension stream.
DROP Analysis Details
💰 Pension Option Comparison
Compare taking the full pension vs. a reduced pension with a beneficiary guarantee. Shows the monthly cost, breakeven age, max beneficiary payout, and whether investing the monthly difference beats the guarantee over your lifetime.
Guarantee Type
Full Pension (Monthly $)
Reduced Pension (Monthly $)
✦ Estimated 97% of full — verify with administrator
Beneficiary Monthly ($)
✦ Estimated 85% of full — verify with administrator
Current Age
Life Expectancy
Investment Return (%)
Beneficiary Age (Survivor only)
Only used for Survivor Benefit option
Monthly Cost of Guarantee
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Total Lifetime Cost
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Difference Invested at Death
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Max Beneficiary Payout
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Breakeven Age
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Probable Beneficiary Payout
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Pension Analysis Details
📊 Side-by-Side: Period-certain stops after the guarantee period ends. Survivor benefit pays for the beneficiary's entire lifetime.